Europe´s new role on the world stage

In a rapidly changing world, Europe now assumes a role it has not played since the colonial days.  This time around, the mission focuses on peace and stability, not exploitation and self-enrichment.

The main new actor is not a European, but the American president Donald Trump. He follows a script entitled Project 2025, largely written by the American Heritage Foundation. This script primarily serves domestic purposes, such as the consolidation of presidential executive powers.  But it has worldwide implications. With his enhanced domestic powers, which enables Trump to wreak havoc on the American government bureaucracy, the US president approaches the international community with much the same attitude.

The May/June issue of the journal Foreign Affairs contains articles that discuss the picture that is now emerging of Russia, China and the United States. Three countries led by men who together want to dominate the world.

China's long-term goal is to conquer Taiwan. In the short term, the country wants to dominate the South China Sea, which is rich in oil, gas and fish, and an area where one third of the world's merchant ships travel. Through Asia to Europe, the Middle East and Africa, China has since 2013 invested in and built, both an "economic silk road" and a "maritime silk road" (called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)). To date, China has invested more than a trillion dollars in the giant project. At the same time, China controls much of the debt of countries such as Sri Lanka, Laos, Pakistan; Kenya and Zambia in connection with loans China has given to finance infrastructure such as ports, roads and bridges related to the BRI.

Donald Trump has not come as far in dominating his immediate surroundings, but he has started. As is well known, he wants Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal to become American territory.

Vladimir Putin has been fighting for three years to subjugate Ukraine. Few experts believe that the Russians will attack new countries when the war is over, weakened as they are both economically and militarily. But they may change their minds once they have rebuilt themselves. Especially if the peace agreement with Ukraine shows that military aggression brings benefits.

In Foreign Affairs, Stacie E. Goddard compares this situation to “The Concert of Europe,” a system of cooperation formed by the great powers at the Congress of Vienna in 1814–15. This was an attempt to clean up after the Napoleonic Wars. The great powers were to “play together,” like an orchestra, to preserve peace and ensure harmony. If conflicts arose, the members of the “orchestra” had special rights and duties to maintain the calm they all depended on. 

In Trump's second term, he seems to want harmony with Russia. The peace agreement the Americans first presented on Ukraine largely met Russian demands. Trump said that Putin had made enough concessions by giving up territory he has not yet been able to conquer. Lately Trump may have changed his mind a bit, and may want to put pressure on Putin. He changes his mind often. This is also the case in his handling of China

In his first term, Trump had a lukewarm relationship with the Asian giant. He viewed Xi Jinping as a competitor to be beaten. Now the tone is different. After a phone call with the Chinese leader, he wrote on Truth Social : “We will solve many problems together, starting right away. We talked about trade balance, fentanyl (drugs), TikTok , and many other topics. President Xi and I will do everything in our power to make the world more peaceful and safe.” Putin and Xi also have close ties. The Russians need Chinese technology and the Chinese financial market. The Western boycott has made Putin dependent on trade with China. By 2022, China accounted for 40% of Russia’s imports. 

Goddard writes that if the European Concert was to work, members would have to advance their ambitions without trampling on the rights of their fellow players. In the case of smaller countries, which were not part of the orchestra, it might be both acceptable and necessary to trample on them to maintain order.

There is one world power outside of Russia, China and the USA; the EU. Like the other three, the EU has its weaknesses, but also its strengths.  One of the major weaknesses is that major decisions such as foreign and security policy, budget and finance must be unanimous. But recent history has shown that unity has been obtained when needed.  Population wise the EU is right up there with the largest powers with its 448 million people. The US has 336 million inhabitants, compared with Russia´s 144 million. China is in a class by itself with 1.4 billion citizens. Economically the EU is also a power to be reconned with.  The combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the EU is closed to 20 trillion US dollars, compared to 17.8 trillion dollars for China.  Russa is far behind with 2.4 trillion dollars.  The US leads with 30 trillion dollars. 

But experts warn that the US is headed for economic trouble and a possible recession with its erratic financial policies and its isolation from international relationships. In an article in Foreign Affairs, Newsletter for May 12, the Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs and former foreign Minister of Spain, Arancha González Laya says that in this picture Europe offers stability and predictability. After the US Vice President JD Vance´s shocking attack on Europe at the security conference in Munich, European leaders realized that the continent´s future requires that they themselves take decisive steps, González Laya  writes. She quotes the new German chancellor Friedrich Merz who declared that his priority will be “To strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.” She goes on to say that these are not empty promises, and points to unprecedent investment in European defence, infrastructure and climate initiatives. She quotes the French founding father of the EU, Jean Monnet: Anything is possible in exceptional moments, as long as you´re ready, as long as you have a clear project at the moment when everything is confused.”

America built and dominated the western world after the Second World War. After 80 years, the American president is dismantling it, isolating his country from the rest of the international community, and promising that his “America First” policy will deliver great prosperity at home. The rest of the world must build something new.  Without the European Union, Russia and China is likely to carve out and dominate generous spheres of interest for themselves.  The EU will make sure that Europe stays democratic and independent with human rights, free speech and freedom of conscience as dominant values.  This way Europe will also likely influence the rest of the world.